The Kremlin may escalate its military pressure campaign against Ukraine in the winter of 2020-2021. Kremlin pressure is likely compelling Ukraine to disengage from positions close to the frontline in Donbas. Ukraine backslid on a key anti-corruption reform, a development that could undermine Ukraine’s efforts to become a liberal democracy and join Western structures. Zelensky is more vulnerable to Russian pressure and subversion following the October 25 elections. The Kremlin will likely exploit SoP’s poor electoral performance to impair Zelensky’s reelection campaign in 2024. The Kremlin intensified these campaigns in fall 2020 after Zelensky rejected holding local elections in Russian-controlled eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People (SoP) Party performed poorly-in part due to reinvigorated Kremlin military, diplomatic, and informational pressure campaigns targeting Zelensky. Key Takeaway: Ukraine conducted countrywide local elections for the first time since 2015 on October 25, 2020.
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